weather

2015/09/28

The Rains of September

Most folks following this blog know of my fascination with meteorology and my expression of said interest by participating in volunteer functions like ‘Skywarn spotting’ and ‘CoCoRaHS’ (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow network) as well as reporting on the marvelous extremes of weather in The Last Frontier.  I’ve always been a sky watcher and had learned to predict short term weather in the lower 48 just by observing the clouds and winds along with the barometric pressure.  Since relocating to Alaska I’ve had to re-learn this knowledge as it is quite different this far north but I’m having great fun undertaking this re-education.

August is historically Talkeetna’s rainiest month averaging 4.5″ (11.43 cm) of rain but September is a close second at 4.2″ (10.67 cm) of rain.  As you may know from June and July’s wildfires in The Great Land 2015 has been very dry, at least up until this month.  During 2015 only July hit its historical rainfall amount although obviously September is going to grossly exceed its ‘typical’ rainfall!  As I watch the ongoing moderate rains out my office window I am again reminded that in Alaska the weather rules and we humans are just along for the ride and must learn to be both flexible and patient.  Since this latest rain event started last Saturday evening I’ve recorded 2.14″ (5.44 cm) of rain with 1.44″ (3.66 cm) of that amount occurring between 07:00 Sunday morning and 07:00 this (Monday, 09/28) morning.  Since sending in that report to CoCoRaHS this morning I’ve accumulated another 0.33″ (0.84 cm) or so as of 10:40 AKDST and the rain continues:

CoCoRaHS Rain Gauge showing 0.33

CoCoRaHS Rain Gauge showing 0.33″ accumulated rainfall in previous 3.6 hours!

I believe the aforementioned 1.44″ (3.66 cm) of rain across a 24 hour period is the largest amount I’ve recorded during such a time period since relocating to Alaska in September of 2013.

Yet this rain is just the precursor to what could well be significant accumulating snowfall which NWS is currently projecting to begin in roughly 24 hours for this area.  Everything depends upon the speed at which the very cold mass of Siberian air moves into the Mat-Su Valley; the faster this happens the more snow we will receive.  If it happens sooner than forecast we could see over 6″ (15.24 cm) of snow especially at elevations above 1,000 feet (304.8 m) in the Susitna Valley with larger accumulations further north.  If it arrives later then we’ll see more rain and less snow.  I sympathize with the forecasting folks at NWS because so much affects the movement of such an air mass like pressure, upper level winds, lower level winds in the mountains and temperature.

I am very concerned about the rain; given we’ve already seen 2.14″ (5.44 cm) since the event began Saturday evening and the rain is forecast to continue as moderate to heavy rain into Tuesday we could see amounts above 3.5″ (8.89 cm) across the period.  Because the ground is already beginning to freeze the water cannot soak in as well and hence tends to pool and form torrents which can and do wash out the local road system.  I am expecting to pick up a buddy flying from SW Michigan to Anchorage this Wednesday (09/30) evening and the only driving route to Anchorage is the Parks Highway (AK 3) to the Glenn Highway (AK 1).  There are numerous areas along the Parks between Talkeetna and the intersection with the Glenn which have washed out in the past and these conditions are as extreme in terms of rain as any I’ve experienced in my 24 months living up here.  I have driven the Parks in snow and ice but I’ve never had to negotiate washed out areas; at least that hadn’t been repaired before my arrival.

While I love snow and cold I must admit to hoping that the rains do not continue as they sure appear they will do; I’d rather negotiate a foot (30.48 cm) of snow than try to navigate washed out portions of the Parks!  Ironically my buddy is visiting in part to assist me with mounting an electric winch on my Escape; at least I do have a hand powered ‘come along’ capable of moving 4,000 pounds (1,841.4 kg) in the back cargo area along with my standard winter survival kit.  I never thought I’d be hoping for little snow and no more rain but this is the case!  I will remain glued to the NWS and ADOT websites especially tomorrow morning moving into Wednesday.  It appears Alaska is looking to test me once again and I can only rely on my experience and the reports from the aforementioned services to determine if I should attempt the drive Wednesday evening.  At least my buddy has the option of getting a rental car and motel room should the worst come to fruition…

I've never seen so much ponding water on my driveway! In fact I can never remember seeing any pools of water on the portion in this image!!

I’ve never seen so much ponding water on my driveway! In fact I can never remember seeing any pools of water on the portion in this image!!

 

2014/11/30

At the risk of being repetitive…

…where in Heaven’s Name is winter?!?!?  I suppose I should be accurate and ask ‘where is winter in south central Alaska’ although a majority of the state has seen a fairly mild winter to this point.  Apparently northern reaches of the state are actually seeing more typical weather of late; my buddy in Livengood, Alaska (roughly 80 miles NW of Fairbanks) recently spoke of air temps in the negative numbers along with many inches of snow.  I see tomorrow’s high is just -1 F and NWS forecasting 3” to 6” of snow across Tuesday (12/02) night into Wednesday morning.  I’d gladly take such a forecast and be happy even though we should be seeing at least 18” of snow pack by this point.  We did get snow Saturday (11/29); it snowed continually albeit lightly for more than 15 hours yet in my measurements this morning I saw a meager 2.1” of new snow with a ‘snow pack’ of just 2.6” of snow.  I remain amazed I could see 15 contiguous hours of even light snow and still accumulate barely 2” of snow pack…

Here’s a snipped copy of my morning report to CoCoRaHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow):

113014 CoCoRaHS

This report looks much more like those I generated while living in SW Ohio or even SE Michigan when we were lucky to even see accumulating snow during many winters.  I’m beginning to believe I somehow redirect winter weather away from where ever I choose to live!  This sounds like nonsense but you must realize for the four winters I lived in SE Michigan (2009 through 2013) there was almost no snow; the final winter (2012-2013) we totaled just 9” of snow all winter and never saw a temp below 0 F.  I move out in July of 2013 and the next winter sets an all-time record for snowfall at Detroit’s Metro airport and also sets numerous low temperature records during the season.  Meanwhile, Talkeetna has its warmest winter on record as does most of Alaska.  And this year is looking much the same.

I delved back into my weather data collected by my Davis Vantage Pro 2 wireless weather station across the period from November 1, 2013 through February 28, 2014.  I’ve snipped out the monthly synopsis for each month; with the exception of November it’s easy to see it truly was extremely warm up here:

112013

122013

012014

022014

Unbelievable that Talkeetna’s average temp for January 2014 was 25.8 F and its low was just 0.6 F!!!  December and January are the two coldest months up here but you wouldn’t have known that from the above data.  And it appears we’re heading for another such ‘winter that wasn’t’ this year.

Part of the reason I moved to Alaska was to experience five plus months of real winter with feet of snow pack and days of temps never reaching 0 F and dropping into the minus twenties or even minus thirties.  At this juncture to say I’ve been disappointed would be a bit like calling Denali ‘a big hill’!  I realize that technically winter has yet to begin although meteorological winter does start December 1st and runs through March 1st so for all intent and purpose we are now in the winter season.

I certainly hope we see a true shift in our winter back to the more normal temps and snowfall for this area but to this point it doesn’t look good.  If this continues I may have to do the unthinkable and move to Fairbanks or points north just to see an Alaskan winter.  After the grueling move up here from SE Michigan I swore I would never move again yet if I cannot find ‘winter’ here I may just have to swallow that promise and look north.  Alaskans from the further north reaches joking refer to this area as ‘the banana belt’; sadly to this point that moniker is all too accurate!

2014/08/06

Happy Anniversary To Me..!!

I awoke this morning to overcast skies and the gentle sound of very light rain just beginning which slowly intensified as I went through my morning routine of getting dressed, getting the dogs outside, brushing my teeth and making coffee.  By the time I entered my CoCoRaHS daily precipitation and evapotranspiration reports at 07:00 the precipitation had become steady although still fairly light.  Somehow these kinds of conditions seemed fitting to mark my first year as an Alaskan resident; in my first year I’ve seen a myriad of rainy days along with not enough snowy days or winter cold.  While I am currently completing a more detailed appraisal of my first ‘Alaskan’ year here are some thoughts:

  • What do I most love about my rural Talkeetna lifestyle?  Very tough call…I’d say it’s a tie between the immense silence and the ever-present wildlife.
  • What do I dislike the most about living in rural Talkeetna?  Another tie: I abhor the mosquitoes and I am sick to death of the lack of real darkness across the past three months!  The summer influx of tourists into Talkeetna ranks a very close second..!
  • What do I most miss from my lower 48 life?  Actually almost nothing although once again it’s a tie, this time between personal interaction with so many friends I left behind and the absence of really severe weather up here in the form of thunderstorms and super-cell activity.
  • What do I miss least about living in the lower 48?  This is impossible to answer with even five items although two major things that immediately came to mind were the congestion and the noise pollution.  Right behind would be 80+ F air temps, 70+ F dew points and light pollution.
  • What has most surprised me about my new lifestyle?  So many things!  Despite my previous Alaskan experiences and all my planning I’d have to say my ill-preparedness for living semi-rural in south central Alaska.  And I’ve had invaluable help and advice from Holly (my good friend and realtor) along with so many other local folks.  I knew I’d have a huge learning curve but even so I grossly underestimated my lack of experience and knowledge.

Within the next few weeks I’ll follow this up with a much more detailed accounting.  And if I have one wish it’s that I see many, many more anniversaries in this amazing place!

A look out my door at a rainy August 6, 2014. Look closely at the plastic rain gauge and you can see a bit more than 0.11" have accumulated since 07:00 this morning

A look out my door at a rainy August 6, 2014. Look closely at the plastic rain gauge and you can see a bit more than 0.11″ has accumulated since 07:00 this morning

 

2014/05/31

To Every Season…

I awoke this morning to the sound of rain against the metal roof and my German Shepherd Dog’s (Qanuk) slight but definite urgings that even though it was just 05:43 it was time to get up.  Qanuk doesn’t have my Alaskan Malamute’s (Anana) manners; she has always shied away from any interaction with me in the morning until I am awake.  Not sure why this is, I only know it to be true.  Qanuk lies next to me and very softly ‘talks’ to me with a series of grunts, groans and whines; if I in any way acknowledge his amazing repertoire of vocalizations he immediately increases both the volume and the repetition of his noises.  He knows if he does this long enough he will eventually make such an absurd noise that I will bust out laughing and then I have to arise.  I’ve encouraged both my canine companions to be vocal with me and while this is a dual edged sword I do enjoy ‘talking’ with them.

Anyway, as I stretched out my legs prior to arising it occurred to me I hadn’t heard that rhythmic ‘tap tap’ of rain against the roof since last fall.  I warned Qanuk as I arose that he wasn’t going to like the morning weather as it was raining; of late I’ve been taking both dogs out for an early morning walk to start accumulating my current target of 8,000 daily steps (working on making 10,000 daily steps) and to allow them to stretch their legs and work those ole noses.  However, given the 40 F air temp and sheeting rain this would not be one of those mornings.  Still and all it was soothing to again hear the rain and see it peppering the white and black pines and birch trees outside my kitchen window as I prepared my morning coffee.  I began to reflect upon my first ten months in Alaska from an environmental perspective and then compared this to what I’ve experienced while living in the lower 48.  No surprise in many ways its quite different and true to ‘Alaskan reality’ most of it is exaggerated over what I experienced in SE Michigan and other Midwest locations I’ve called ‘home’.

Fall is the season with which I have the most Alaskan experience as I not only experienced a full season last year but in my previous trips from 1996 through 2005 I almost always visited in September.  Last fall was rather aberrant in terms of precipitation with September seeing 192% of normal rainfall and October a whooping 291% of normal; in addition both months were well above normal in terms of temperature.  The beauty of fall in the lower 48 is based largely upon hardwood trees and there just are not many of these in south central Alaska so our fall colors are mainly yellow and gold.  In addition the time the first leaves began to change color until winds blew the last of them from the birches was just a bit more than two weeks.  And this occurred by early October which is far earlier than I experienced in the lower 48.  November started out warm but finally succumbed to the Arctic air and our first measurable snowfall was a 13″ dump across November 9th and 10th.  This was a bit earlier than I was used to seeing in SE Michigan.

Our winter was truly anomalous and in a huge way.  November was actually a bit cooler than usual with December seeing a bit above normal temps until the end when it started into an extremely warm cycle which extended across almost all of January.  In fact, January 2014 set records all over the state for warmth and was the warmest on record for this area.  Our precipitation all but vanished which was a good thing because when it did occur it was often nasty freezing rain.  February saw more seasonable temps occur but the snow did not return; we ended our winter precipitation with just 33% of normal snow pack by early April.  While much of the lower 48 set records for a harsh winter Alaska set records for warmth and lack of snowfall.

Spring arrived early and with it break up occurred much earlier than normal.  I was house hunting up here from April 7th through April 13th in 2013 and waded 30+ inches of snow pack and saw day time highs well below freezing and overnight lows often into the minus single digits and even a couple of minus double-digit mornings.  Yet by April 1st this year we had only a foot of mostly ice remaining on the ground and it vanished by the end of the month.  The locals tell me this was at least a month early but then the air temps in April continued the well above normal routine.  With the dramatic increase in sunshine its easy to see why the spring seemed to just explode upon the landscape; we had a muddy period common to break up but it only lasted for maybe 10 to 12 days and from what I was told that’s about half the usual time.  By early May the snow and ice were history and the mosquitoes out in force; of course they were biting while there was still a foot of snow/ice on the ground so this wasn’t a surprise.  Around the second week in May the birch trees suddenly exploded into life by shedding incredible amounts of yellow/green pollen followed by leaves; within a week all the trees were sporting leaves and within another week they were fully dressed down in summer plumage.

And so it is I find myself wondering what the summer will bring.  Granted I did experience almost all of August up here last year but it was largely showery and warm.  There’s no doubt the mosquitoes will be nasty but I have discovered ‘Deep Woods Off’ which functions amazingly well in this mosquito saturated environment.  After applying it to any exposed skin I’m actually able to spend hours outside and suffer only a few bites even as I’m working and sweating.  As stated I use this on any exposed skin and rub dryer sheets on my external clothing and I’m good to go.  This is a miracle as I’m a true ‘mosquito magnet’!!  I’m dealing with the current dearth of darkness as best I can; it never gets dark any longer and as of today the sun rose at 04:25 AKDT and will set at 23:33 AKDT yielding 19 hours, 8 minutes and 7 seconds of direct light.  And we’re still three weeks from the Summer Solstice!  I knew from previous experience the extended light would be more of a challenge for me than the darkness of winter and that’s been borne out thus far.  In true Alaskan style I’m learning to adapt to the extremes although I still prefer the extended darkness to a total lack of night.  I’m not exaggerating the latter; I was up at 02:20 this morning and outside it was light enough to clearly see the trees, their foliage and even ground features – I believe this is termed ‘nautical twilight’.  And this was with a solid overcast as well.

Local wildlife have their own rhythms within the seasonal cycles; the moose are largely ubiquitous although they do disappear from early April through early May when I believe they are birthing their spring calves back in the boreal forest.  The bears are around from middle to late April through early November.  The foxes (mainly Red) seem to be year round as is the single Wolverine that apparently calls this area ‘home’.  There is a shift in avian population with the waterfowl, robins and similar disappearing in October and returning in early May.  The Chickadees, Downy Woodpeckers and Red Breasted Nuthatches seem to winter over as do the huge ravens which can almost rival the Bald Eagles in size.  I didn’t see the large Magpies during winter but they are once again in attendance now that its warmer so they may migrate as well.  There just are not a lot of Red Squirrels in this area but I know they remain across winter.

I’m only now (May 31st) beginning to see a few flowers in the boreal forest, most are small and tend towards white although I’ve seen various shades of red and some purples as well.  I know there are many blossoms to come and I suspect this will occur within a week or two.  Without question as spring arrived Nature seemed to go into overdrive regarding life; it literally is an explosion unlike anything I’ve previously witnessed.  Given the abbreviated growing season I guess it’s no surprise that once spring arrives its in a hurry to get down to business.  I’m now coming up on having spent all four seasons in my new home and without question I remain fascinated by and enamored of this magnificent land.  Living up here truly is a ‘give and take’ situation as learning to deal with the mosquitoes and tourists of summer as well as the rain of the late summer/early fall and the mud of break up can be a challenge but then overall its just part of amazing Alaska.  I feel so privileged I can finally live within its mystery and majesty; doing so has really nourished my soul as well as brought me into a much closer relationship with Nature and I couldn’t ask for more.  As such its a true pleasure just to experience Alaska’s many moods and learn to live within her extreme conditions.  Let the adventure continue…!!

Image

A gorgeous purple-red bloom just off East Barge Drive in the boreal forest

Gorgeous purple flowers along East Barge Drive

Gorgeous purple flowers along East Barge Drive

2013/10/22

Maybe I Should Start A Column…

…addressing the absolutely strange weather of late across my new home state.  Heaven knows I wouldn’t run out of topics or observations about which to write.  This morning is no different and I could just as easily entitled this creation ‘It Just Won’t Snow!”.  For just the sixth time in October (that’s 6 out of 22 days of just 27.3%) we dropped below the freezing mark right at 07:00.  Fine, its been fairly warm of late so no big surprise.  However, by the time the precipitation started around 08:25 AKDT the outdoor temp had dropped to 31 F; given this one would expect to see snow yet what alerted me to the precipitation – its still far too dark outside to see anything – was the ‘tap, tap, tapping’ sound the rain makes on the metal roof.  I couldn’t believe I was hearing rain with a 31 F air temp so I opened the office window and, yes indeed, it was raining!

Now I’ve seen many instances in which it will snow when the air temp is in the middle to even upper thirties; usually this is caused by colder air aloft.  But to the best of my knowledge this is the first time I’d seen rain with a temp below freezing.  I had to further prove this to myself by walking onto the front porch with a powerful flashlight and illuminating the rack on my Escape Limited; without question ice-sickles were forming as the rain hit the colder metal, slowed in its advance down the existing ice and then froze.  I would assume this will produce freezing rain which is something most of the locals have said just doesn’t happen around here.  Given what I know of Alaskan weather – very, very little – I would surmise that we experienced a ‘pocket’ of colder air which drifted south.  The overall atmosphere is too warm to produce snow but when the rain falls into this cold pocket it will freeze upon exposed surfaces.  Breaks in the clouds are now letting enough light filter through such that I can see the immediate area and the Escape does indeed have a light sheen to it suggesting ice.  I also see the air temp has risen now to 32.2 F so said ice will quickly return to a liquid state.  My temperature sensor is placed 4 feet above ground level; this is really a bit high – it should be more like 18″ to 24″ – but because a 36″ snow pack isn’t uncommon by January I had little choice but to set it up higher.

Without question the weather up here has been ‘anomalous’ at best and downright strange at worst but then Alaska is certainly not known for a docile, stable climate.  In fact, its this extreme nature which helped interest me in the state way back in the middle 90’s.  Thus far I not been disappointed in terms of unusual weather; just with the way the weather has been unusual.  I suppose if I favored warmer temps I would be happy but then if this were my situation I sure as Hell wouldn’t have retired to ‘The Last Frontier’ in the first place.  Here’s hoping we do see some snow and soon..!